OPEC just released its annual Word Oil Outlook which predicts that oil demand may peak at around 109mbpd by 2035 with most decline happening in OECD while China and India will continue to exhibit growth in demand through 2045 due to expanding middle class and rising income.
This is more than 1mbpd compared with the OPEC outlook released previously which saw oil demand at 108mbpd by 2045, right after the pandemic.
The share of EV in the global fleet mix is seen close to 538 million cars by 2045 compared with almost 1.7 billion conventional vehicles. Yet most decline in demand for gasoline is expected to results from fuel efficiency at around 8mbpd by 2045.
Also the report shows that oil production in the US likely to peak at around 12mbpd by 2027 after which US oil production will gradually decline.
OPEC production on the other hand is expected to rise from around 35mbpd today to 42mbpd by 2045 which means that OPEC share at the global supply mix is expected increase significantly.
Furthermore, the refining industry is expected to add 7.3mbpd of extra capacity by 2045 of which 3.6mbpd will be in Asia and the pacific. Refining capacity is expected to decline by 2.6mbpd in the OECD suggesting declining demand for fuel in medium term.
To meet growing oil demand, which may grow by 10mbpd by 2035, additional $12trillion is needed of which $9.5 trillion will be needed in the upstream sector.
We spoke to Al Arabiya News Channel on the OPEC oil outlook published today at ADIPEC Exhibition and Conference